Escaping Lock-in: the Case of the Electric Vehicle

Robin Cowan, and Staffan Hulten

1/01/2005
(Original Publish Date: 1996)

Many established technologies are today being challenged as not meeting the demands of modern society. The problem can be that they do not represent the best known technology, for example the QWERTY keyboard and light water nuclear reactors, or that they produce negative environmental effects, for example pesticides in agriculture and CFCs in refrigerators. What makes these challenges interesting and difficult is that many of these technologies appear to be very well-entrenched in the technological system. This paper will discuss the possibility of escaping lock-in after a technology has achieved dominance in the market and has been able to enhance its comparative advantages over many decades. The case to be discussed is that of the secular competition between the electric vehicle and the gasoline car. The competition can be separated into 5 phases: 1) the formative years of the automobile industry, 1885-1905, when no technology dominated, 2) the establishment of the gasoline car as dominant 1905-1920, 3) the consolidation of the position of the gasoline car 1920-1973, 4) the questioning of the gasoline car 1973-1998, and perhaps 5) the legislated, forced introduction of large scale production of electric vehicles after 1998. The first four phases represent the history of a technological lock-in, with the gasoline car becoming more and more firmly entrenched. The fifth phase, if it occurs, will be an example of an escape (or partial escape) from technological lock-in. Concerns about noise and pollution, especially in inner cities, have raised questions about whether such an escape is possible.